NHL best bets: Stars vs. Avalanche Game 3 odds, preview, prediction for 5/11

Stars vs. Avalanche Odds

Saturday, May 11, 10 p.m. ET, TNT & truTV

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

History nearly repeated itself in Game 2 as Dallas led 4-0 heading into the third period, but then let up three goals.

Luckily for the Stars, they held on with the help of a game-saving block from Chris Tanev after a deflection from Artturi Lehkonen with 45 seconds left.

Regardless, the margin for error in the playoffs is razor thin. The laissez-faire play has certainly raised questions. Do the Stars get too comfortable when leading, or are the Avalanche just that good?

Dallas Stars

All season long, the Stars were among the elite in even-strength play, ranking in the top five in expected goals (xGF) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

The postseason is no different. Dallas has posted a playoff-best 57.89 xGF% and a second-best 2.5 xGA/60. However, can we really trust these numbers if the Stars falter in crunch time?

Key players like Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen have provided solid scoring depth, but are consistently net negatives on the defensive end.

Jake Oettinger suffered some ups and downs and ended up with a mediocre .905 SV% this season. Regardless, his saving grace is his performance in the playoffs. He posts a career .916 SV% and has built a reputation of stealing games when the pressure is on.

Colorado Avalanche

Colorado’s a bit of a different story. It's even strength play underwhelmed all season, but is among the elite in the postseason. Additionally, it has started games awfully slow, eventually picking itself up in the latter parts of the game.The Avalanche rank fourth with a 56.47 xGF% and fifth with a 2.75 xGA/60. Of course, having stars in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar at their disposal certainly helps as each are averaging well over a point per game.

Colorado’s ability to take over a game in the later periods comes from its dynamic power play and ability to win key faceoffs.

In the final four minutes, the Avs won four of five faceoffs, allowing three of the league's best players — MacKinnon, Makar and Mikko Rantanen — to get to work in the offensive zone.

Goaltending was a major weakness for Colorado with Alexandar Georgiev playing subpar hockey. While Georgiev registered the most wins among goalies in the NHL, he posted a sub-.900 SV% for the season. He’s carried that trend into the postseason with an .891 SV%.

Stars vs. Avalanche

Betting Pick & Prediction

True colors were shown in the first two games of this series.

The Stars have proven that they can’t hang when the clock starts to wind down. Colorado, on the other hand, wakes up once the first 20 minutes pass.

Will we see a repeat in Game 3?

Dallas has proven analytically that it’s an elite team, but can't seem to sustain that play.

If trends tell us anything, then there’s a strong chance Colorado comes out on top. The Avalanche are listed as the favorite, and I tend to lean that way as well. It’s not the greatest value at -134, but going any other way is too risky since these teams are statistically very even.

Pick: Coloardo Avalanche Moneyline at -134 via FanDuel